This marks a significant drop from last year’s already low figure of 17%, highlighting persistent concerns over economic stagnation, rising costs, and government policy.
The survey, conducted among Ulster Society members, was carried out before President Trump’s tariff plan announcement, and presents a mixed picture of resilience and challenge. While businesses are adapting through AI adoption, sustainability initiatives, and flexible working arrangements, major economic pressures, including inflation, tax burdens, and workforce shortages, continue to weigh on growth prospects.
Key Findings
The survey shows that economic confidence has fallen in the last year. Only 8% of members believe the NI economy has strong growth prospects, down from 17% last year. 58% see the economy as either stagnant (42%) or contracting (16%). Inflation, high energy costs, and rising taxes are the most cited concerns. New US Tariffs, announced after the survey, are expected to also play into concerns of local businesses.
60% of respondents believe financial distress is rising among businesses, though there are signs of improvement compared to previous years. While financial distress is still high, some members report improving conditions.
There is strong support for tax reform to boost competitiveness. 59% support devolved corporation tax powers, with 64% advocating tax alignment with the Republic of Ireland to boost competitiveness.
The UK’s exit from the EU continues to divide opinion for local businesses. 41% say Brexit has harmed Northern Ireland’s economy, while only 12% see a positive impact.
61% understand Northern Ireland’s unique dual market access as offering trade opportunities, but most of those surveyed feel that this potential positive is yet to be realised. The Windsor Framework receives a mixed response, with 1 in 5 businesses viewing it positively.
The survey also shows that workforce and skills shortages persist. 56% of businesses struggle to recruit suitable talent. Many chartered accountants feel the education system is not adequately preparing young people for employment. Employers are investing in training, but 26% believe it is insufficient.
The survey also shows that Artificial Intelligence (AI) and sustainability are gaining traction but present challenges for business. 79% believe AI will improve efficiency, but uncertainty remains around investment in AI solutions.
Many local businesses are adopting green initiatives, with 55% investing in energy efficiency and 53% going paperless. However, 41% see sustainability efforts as an added cost, and 43% feel unprepared for sustainability reporting.
Hybrid working remains common, but family pressures are growing. 43% of professionals work in a hybrid model, though some employers are pushing for more office time. Childcare costs remain a major barrier, with only 14% believing childcare is affordable and 27% of working parents adjusting their hours to manage family responsibilities.
The survey also shows that confidence in Government is low, with scepticism about public finance management and economic strategy. 57% do not believe the government can manage public finances effectively. The UK’s new Industrial Strategy has also been met with scepticism. 52% do not believe the UK’s new strategy will be transformational.